原始文献 / 论坛帖 / Re: Current Bitcoin economic model is unsustainable
Re: Current Bitcoin economic model is unsustainable
Bitcointalk · 2010-02-21 05:44:24 UTC
分析得漂亮，xc。
一个预期会升值的东西，理性的市场价格已经反映了预期未来涨幅的现值。你在心里做个概率估算，权衡它继续涨的可能性。
没有市场来定价时，NewLibertyStandard 按生产成本的估算是个不错的猜测，也是个有用的服务（谢了）。任何商品的价格都倾向于向生产成本靠拢。价格低于成本，生产就放缓；价格高于成本，生成再卖就能赚钱。同时，产量增加会推高难度，把生成成本推向价格。
往后几年，新币生成只占现有供应的一小部分时，市场价格决定生产成本的程度会超过反过来。
眼下生成投入在快速增加，说明大家估计的现值高于当前的生产成本。
英文原文
Excellent analysis, xc.
A rational market price for something that is expected to increase in value will already reflect the present value of the expected future increases. In your head, you do a probability estimate balancing the odds that it keeps increasing.
In the absence of a market to establish the price, NewLibertyStandard's estimate based on production cost is a good guess and a helpful service (thanks). The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost. If the price is below cost, then production slows down. If the price is above cost, profit can be made by generating and selling more. At the same time, the increased production would increase the difficulty, pushing the cost of generating towards the price.
In later years, when new coin generation is a small percentage of the existing supply, market price will dictate the cost of production more than the other way around.
At the moment, generation effort is rapidly increasing, suggesting people are estimating the present value to be higher than the current cost of production.